2 posts tagged “uk property market”
During these days of doom and gloom there have been some little moments of schadenfreude that I must admit to.
I don't generally enjoy watching people suffer but there are a few that made me smirk.
It turns out that a lot of the pubs in the UK now belong to major
corporations that are all funded from Iceland.
Since Kaupping went bust last week and Icebank froze all the UK accounts some new facts have come to light. It is amazing how we have all missed the fundamental changes money has made in our lives because we have been so busy chasing our tails in the endless pursuit of avarice.
Staples of society have been eroded so much that there are now a million Italian coffee bars in Bournemouth alone. Once welcoming boozers bedecked with flock wallpaper, burnished bars and copper fittings have been replaced by glamourous "hot spots" where there are no seats or tables so anyone over 25 is immediately at a disadvantage, the music is so loud and intrusive that a conversation is almost impossible and there are always 2 guys on the door with the qualifications of a water rat and the manners of a stoat.
In their defence these "ALL BAR SENSE" type places do have lots of fancy paintings and hand crafted floor coverings imported from Borneo as well as an endless supply of wine from god knows where at god knows what price. They are designed to be comfortable for the media savvy, wealthy tossers and tastemekers in the three years between University and their first real relationship and / or baby. They are not for anyone else. It is inclusion by exclusion.
I have to tell you, with a deep sense of foreboding that ther are almost no old pubs left in central London. That my friends is a bloody disgrace! Pubs are what made this country great. That and the ability to wage war whilst avoiding casualties on our side... but that is for another time.
So the financial collapse has some visible casualties and in particular one guy, Mr Tchenguiz, who lost a billion pounds last week. A BILLION! in one day. (That's $2 billion if you are American and the whole Northern Territory if you are from Australia.) Now he has to sell his stake in about 800 pubs. That is good news 'cos he has been shutting them down wholesale for years. I believe his motives were entirely profit driven but the fact that he is Iranian can't have helped. How could he know the damage his ventures would be doing? Would we have been allowed to go to Tehran and sell off the Mosques? I doubt it and ignorance is no excuse. Our temples have been desecrated and the damage is becoming more and more apparent.
About a week ago I was at a wedding on Saturday and Funeral on Monday. There was a huge contrast, obviously. But one thing struck me at both events. The wedding was glamourous and I was surrounded by very very powerful people. And to be honest I couldn't quite believe it. After all the wedding was about 10 miles from where I grew up, in rural Lancashire. There were fund managers, developers with multi million pound portfolios, equity traders, more doctors than the NHS can provide on most days, lawyers, union bosses and they were all there to get plastered and make fools of themselves like everyone else. It was excellent. Beer was the great leveller.
At the funeral I met a load of my old school mates. They are all doing well. Things have changed there though. Apart from the male pattern baldness and ever increasing girth we are all in rude health and there is still a bond between us that I know will last forever. The difference now is that of the 4 pubs that used to be in the centre of the village only one remains open. ONE!
I consider this a personal affront. It seems Mr Tchenguiz had bought 2 of them and put them up for sale and the other was owned by Punch Taverns who are doing the same thing. The wake had to be held at a hotel in the next village.
That is a crime!
When I was younger we made total idiots of ourselves with alcoholic assistance and I know that we could easily have been led into destruction and lunacy, a la Amy Wino, but the pursuit of alcohol was a noble and honoured tradition that deserves respect and some form of sanction at the highest levels. Enough of this big brother, Taliban demonisation. It is our birth right and no amount of Iranian, Icelandic, Thatcherite profit motive led prohibition is acceptable.
With the demise of our pubs our youth have lost a font of knowledge, contacts and places to perform. In turn the older generation have lost a means of communicating on level erms with their offspring and a rite of passage is in danger of being lost. No joke. This is like removing the chief of a village and replacing him with a vending machine. No wonder we are all afraid of our own kids. We never see them in a social setting and they never see us!
I am disgusted at the way that a fundamental part of Anglo-Saxon has been stealthily eroded. Maybe thanks to the credit crash we will actually be able to pay our publicans enough to allow them to open again. It is an international disgrace and it should be reversed now!
For the past 150 years any self-respecting male 14 would have spent his time like this:
20% masturbating
40% asleep
10% learning
15% bragging about sex or drinking
10% working out how to get a bottle of cider without being caught
Nowadays they manage the same equation but replace cider with crack and sex and drinking with knives and murders.
In all seriousness, I mean this. If we continue to escalate the prohibition of alchol simply for "health" reason or because a tea total foreign investor sees more profit in Cappucino than in Carlsberg we are going to destroy the fabric of our society. Pubs aren't about booze. They are the tribal centres of our lives. They function like the long huts of primitive societies. They are the place where law and order is founded - not flouted. A decent pub has all ages and all classes and by mixing them together we avoid the race, age, wealth conflicts that blight our society.
Pubs are the nations glue and we need to remember it.
Now put on you coat and galoshes. Take a tenner from the jar above the sink and go and buy a pint. It may just save your way of life.
For those of you who read this blog you will know that I have been bleating on about strange and arcane things like the carry trade in the Lithuanian mortgage market and forex mis-alignments since I began this rambling collection of thoughts. But now - as promised - the chickens are perched and the coop is well and truly shut up for the winter.
It appears likely that there will be job cuts in the City of London banking sector for the first time since 2001 and the panic that has followed on from Northern Rock has meant that a whole lot of banks are closing up shop in the UK PROPERTY MARKET. In America it is time for a quiet meltdown.
Why that matters is that the economies of most of the developed world have decided that the investment that matters is no longer equities but real estate. I have no problem with that. But it ties in the entire economy to the value of some rather inactive bits of clay and slate.
In and of themselves houses do not create wealth or jobs. So when the value of houses declines so does available cash which in turn means less is spent and so less is bought and manufacturing declines and jobs are lost and - here we go again! The authentic sound of boom and bust. There are some remedies (see Keynes) but most governments do not have the balls to pursue them for fear of upsetting the big noises in world business.
Is this present crisis any different from the old ones? Or is it just another cyclical fit on the way to greater wealth?
My money is on the latter. This is a minor storm in a very very big teacup.
The problem right now is that no one seems to know which bank is in trouble and which isn't.
Thanks to the sub-prime farago in the States and all the exotic derivatives that have been developed to sell them around the globe to unsuspecting investors we have acres of newsprint devoted to debt and none at all to growth. It just goes to show that no matter where you are the nay-sayers will always have the loudest voice.
Just yesterday I saw an article about a rural council in Australia that was AU$7 Million in hock to a fund that has vapourised. That may not sound much but their annual budget is only $10m so it has made a bit of a mess in the rubbish collecting schedules in Tumbabumba.
The lack of trust within the banking sector has led to some very unhappy Shylock's and some very threadbare looking investment banks. Pretty soon a few names will disappear from your High St and there wil be a big fuss for about 4 nanoseconds before we all get on with it again.
Like most news, when we get bored, or there is nothing new to say, that guy who reads the news will be talking about a puppy up a tree instead of your life savings in the toilet. I mean, do you know what happened to Sri Lanka after the Tsunami? Did you know that Bali was in Indonesia? Did you know Indonesia was also devastated by the Tsunami? Nice choice of venue for a global climate conference I say - who thought that one up? Krusty the clown?
Pretty soon we will wonder what all the fuss was about. That is no bad thing. Bloodletting like this has to happen every so often and it has a deeper effect in the west when it happens at Christmas.
Spending a few weeks over the holidays wondering if you will be able to feed the kids next year makes the pain greater and the resultant relief when it all works out is more marvelous when new year comes around and you still have a job. Think of it as economic sado-masochism and you have the general idea.
As ever when it comes to high finance I will bet you a pound to a penny that pretty soon after Hogmoney (sic) that a newspaper somewhere will offer up a figurehead financial gangster that we can pillory and shame. Another Nik Leeson is what they need right now to divert attention. I am going to guess "they" will have a go at Allan Greenspan - who is old - retired and out of harms way already.
"They" are the real villains of this winters tale; men in suits, hidden behind letters like CFO and CEO. Wall Street's big boys who will carry on sniffing coke and shagging hookers no matter what happens.
You need to remember that finance is an incestuous and capricious world which periodically needs to renew itself. It does so by imploding and then rebuilding from the ashes - the phoenix of finance will always prevail and despite all the garbage you will hear over the next year or so you should just look at your own situation and decide if what you hear has any bearing at all on your day. For 90% of us it does not. I mean who really cares if the Nasdaq is down 500 points? No human - just a fund manager and they are very different creatures I promise you.
I am going to go out on a limb here and say that 2008 will start very badly but by July/August there will be an enormous boom. As soon as the winter blues are past and the banks realise that have pots of cash left over and central banks are ready to pour money into the system we will see the biggest boom of the past 25 years. IT WILL NOT LAST LONG SO MAKE THE MOST OF IT. Pretty soon inflation will clobber the whole enterprise and we will be back to square 1 but as soon as the floodgates open I suggest you borrow massive amounts and spend as fast as you can. (Then move to Argentina.)
Having said that I have one great caveat.
If the Americans vote another right wing nut job into the house they are all fucked. We know how that works - look at Europe through most of the 20th century and you'll see. It has to happen sometime, America is 19th century Europe writ large - I just hope I am long dead before I see it.
If they do give Huckerbee of one of his nutty friends a piece of the pie there will be a religious civil war in the US.
Europe will close the borders and in double quick time oil will be replaced by hydrogen. When that happens the middle east will fade to insignificance and we will be back to the age of Enlightenment.
So as you see - 2008 looks like a very good year after all.